9 checked facts

Probability

Everything on this site about probability — each one naming the study behind it.

You believe you influenced an outcome that was random.
When individuals are given a choice in a game of chance, they rate their probability of success as higher than those w…
You expect patterns where there is only randomness.
The gambler's fallacy is a well-established cognitive bias defined as the belief that past independent events influenc…
You believe your effort influences random outcomes.
A 1975 study found people bet more on lottery tickets when they selected the numbers themselves.…
You prefer a sure gain, even when a gamble pays more.
The pseudocertainty effect leads people to choose an outcome perceived as certain over a probabilistic one, even when …
You roll dice harder to influence the outcome.
People believe they have influence over random outcomes when they are personally involved in the process.…
You believe that luck is a balancing force.
A 1971 study by Tversky and Kahneman, titled 'Belief in the Law of Small Numbers,' found that people expect short-term…
You fear risk more when the outlook is positive.
People show a strong preference for certainty when a positive outcome is likely, even when a riskier option offers a h…
You interpret luck as evidence of your own skill.
People who perceive a sense of control over a random event significantly overestimate their probability of success.…
You feel more in control when you participate in luck.
In a 1975 study, participants perceived a game based entirely on chance as a skill-based challenge simply because they…