15 checked facts

Probability

Everything on this site about probability — each one naming the study behind it.

You ignore the most common outcome because it feels boring.
The conjunction fallacy occurs when you judge a specific scenario as more probable than a general one, despite mathema…
Your brain prefers simple patterns over complex reality.
The 'Representativeness Heuristic' leads you to judge the probability of an event by how much it resembles your mental…
You overestimate your ability to predict the future.
The 'hot hand' fallacy leads people to believe that success streaks imply a higher probability of continued success.…
You think the past forces a change in probability.
A 1971 study found that people expect a coin flip to balance out after a streak of heads, as if the coin has a memory.…
You believe a win is due after repeated losses.
The gambler's fallacy is a recognized statistical bias that has been studied since the 19th century; Tversky and Kahne…
You believe you control things that are purely random.
The illusion of control causes you to overestimate your influence over chance-based outcomes.…
You believe you influenced an outcome that was random.
When individuals are given a choice in a game of chance, they rate their probability of success as higher than those w…
You expect patterns where there is only randomness.
The gambler's fallacy is a well-established cognitive bias defined as the belief that past independent events influenc…
You believe your effort influences random outcomes.
A 1975 study found people bet more on lottery tickets when they selected the numbers themselves.…
You prefer a sure gain, even when a gamble pays more.
The pseudocertainty effect leads people to choose an outcome perceived as certain over a probabilistic one, even when …
You roll dice harder to influence the outcome.
People believe they have influence over random outcomes when they are personally involved in the process.…
You believe that luck is a balancing force.
A 1971 study by Tversky and Kahneman, titled 'Belief in the Law of Small Numbers,' found that people expect short-term…
You fear risk more when the outlook is positive.
People show a strong preference for certainty when a positive outcome is likely, even when a riskier option offers a h…
You interpret luck as evidence of your own skill.
People who perceive a sense of control over a random event significantly overestimate their probability of success.…
You feel more in control when you participate in luck.
In a 1975 study, participants perceived a game based entirely on chance as a skill-based challenge simply because they…