← all facts
probability
You prefer a sure gain, even when a gamble pays more.
The pseudocertainty effect leads people to choose an outcome perceived as certain over a probabilistic one, even when the latter is mathematically superior.
When participants are asked to choose between a sure gain and a risky bet, they shift their preference based on how the certainty is framed. Framing a choice as a 'certainty' triggers a disproportionate positive response, causing you to ignore expected value. You prefer the feeling of winning over the benefit of the best odds.
You are a seeker of certainty, not necessarily a seeker of value.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Kahneman and Tversky, 1979, Econometrica
- What the check found
- The term and the phenomenon are central to Kahneman and Tversky's 1979 Prospect Theory. The claim accurately reflects the core finding regarding the preference for certain gains over probabilistic ones.
- Confidence
- Well replicated
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.