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probability
You believe a win is due after repeated losses.
The gambler's fallacy is a recognized statistical bias that has been studied since the 19th century; Tversky and Kahneman (1971) published influential research explaining the cognitive mechanism (the law of small numbers) that causes it.
Tversky and Kahneman (1971) explored why humans fall for the gambler's fallacy, but they did not originate the concept.
You mistake random sequences for meaningful patterns.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Tversky and Kahneman (1971)
- What the check found
- The definition is correct, but the attribution to Tversky and Kahneman (1971) is historically inaccurate. They provided the psychological explanation for the bias, not the discovery of the fallacy itself.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.