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probability
You ignore the most common outcome because it feels boring.
The conjunction fallacy occurs when you judge a specific scenario as more probable than a general one, despite mathematical laws.
In a 1983 study, participants rated a description of a woman as more likely to be a 'feminist bank teller' than just a 'bank teller'. Your brain favors vivid, narrative-based details over statistical probability. This tendency causes you to overvalue unlikely but exciting explanations for everyday events.
Your mind prefers a compelling story to a dull fact.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D., 1983, 'Extensional versus intuitive reasoning'
- What the check found
- The claim correctly summarizes the conjunction fallacy and accurately cites the canonical 1983 Tversky and Kahneman research.
- Confidence
- Well replicated
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.