← all facts
probability
You expect patterns where there is only randomness.
The gambler's fallacy is a well-established cognitive bias defined as the belief that past independent events influence the probability of future outcomes. While Tversky and Kahneman's 1971 research on the 'law of small numbers' is a foundational empirical study explaining this behavior, the concept itself predates their work.
Remove the specific attribution to Tversky and Kahneman 1971 as the source of the definition.
You mistake noise for a signal.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Tversky and Kahneman, 1971
- What the check found
- The definition provided is accurate, but the source attribution implies that Tversky and Kahneman originated the concept rather than provided influential empirical evidence for its underlying psychological mechanism.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.