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risk
You reject options when the outcome is unclear.
People avoid choices where the probability of success is unknown, even when other choices have lower odds.
You would rather take a gamble with a known 50% chance of success than one where the odds are unknown, even if the unknown option might be mathematically superior. This aversion to ambiguity prevents you from exploring potentially advantageous paths.
You are leaving success on the table just because it is uncertain.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Ellsberg (1961)
- What the check found
- The claim correctly identifies the Ellsberg paradox (1961), a well-established finding in decision theory, even though the provided source text does not contain it.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.