← all facts
projection
You overestimate how your future self will feel.
The projection bias causes you to project your current tastes or preferences onto your future decisions.
Projection bias refers to the misprediction of future tastes (like hunger) rather than emotional states; the latter is typically categorized under impact bias within affective forecasting.
Your present mood is an unreliable narrator for your future needs.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Loewenstein et al., 2003
- What the check found
- Projection bias (Loewenstein et al., 2003) refers to mispredicting future preferences or tastes (e.g., hunger affecting shopping), not future emotional states.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.