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affective forecasting
You predict future happiness based on your current state.
A 2003 review article by Wilson and Gilbert defined the impact bias, summarizing evidence from earlier studies that showed people overestimate the duration and intensity of their emotional reactions.
The 2003 paper is a comprehensive review (Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. 35) rather than a single primary study.
You treat your current mood as the permanent baseline for tomorrow.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Wilson & Gilbert (2003), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology
- What the check found
- The phenomenon is real, but the 2003 paper is a well-known review article, not a single experiment that established the effect.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.