4 checked facts

Hindsight bias

Everything on this site about hindsight bias — each one naming the study behind it.

You are convinced past events were easier to predict.
In a 1975 study, participants rated an outcome as significantly more inevitable once they were told it had already hap…
Your memory rewrites past events to make them predictable.
Once you know the outcome of an event, you tend to overestimate the likelihood that you would have predicted that spec…
You think your past self knew more than it did.
A 1975 study by Baruch Fischhoff demonstrated that knowing an outcome significantly impairs the ability to accurately …
You are convinced the outcome was predictable all along.
A 1975 study found that people consistently overestimate their ability to have foreseen an event once they know how it…