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hindsight bias
You are convinced past events were easier to predict.
In a 1975 study, participants rated an outcome as significantly more inevitable once they were told it had already happened.
Even when participants were warned about this tendency, they could not prevent it. They reconstructed their memory to align with the known outcome. The result is a false sense of personal foresight.
You rewrite history to make yourself feel like a better navigator of life.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Fischhoff, 1975
- What the check found
- This study is the seminal paper identifying the 'hindsight bias.' The claim accurately reflects Fischhoff's 1975 finding published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology.
- Confidence
- Well replicated
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.