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hindsight bias
You are convinced the outcome was predictable all along.
A 1975 study found that people consistently overestimate their ability to have foreseen an event once they know how it concluded.
Participants were presented with a series of historical events and asked to estimate the likelihood of various outcomes. When told the actual result, they shifted their estimates to suggest that outcome was significantly more probable than they had originally believed. This revision of the past happens automatically.
You treat your past self as if they possessed the knowledge you hold today.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Baruch Fischhoff, 1975, Journal of Experimental Psychology
- What the check found
- The claim correctly identifies the researcher, year, and primary finding of the seminal paper establishing hindsight bias, though the source was not found in the provided reference text.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.