← all facts
cognitive bias
Your choice depends entirely on how options are phrased.
In the 1981 study, 72% of participants chose a certain outcome of saving 200 out of 600 lives over a risky option with a 1/3 probability of saving everyone.
The original study utilized a hypothetical scenario involving 600 lives at risk, not percentage-based treatment survival rates.
You are making choices based on the words provided, not the facts involved.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Tversky and Kahneman, 1981, Science
- What the check found
- The 72% figure is accurate to the positive-frame arm of the study, but the description of the treatment is factually incorrect as it replaces absolute counts with percentage probabilities.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.