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decision making
Your certainty is usually a better measure of ego.
When asked to provide a range that will contain the truth, people consistently provide estimates that are too narrow.
Research shows that participants often provide ranges they are 90% confident in, yet they remain wrong up to 50% of the time. We suffer from a systemic inability to account for the true width of our ignorance.
Your confidence is often a poor substitute for accuracy.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Moore and Healy, 2008
- What the check found
- The cited paper by Moore and Healy (2008) accurately distinguishes this as 'overprecision' and confirms the common finding that 90% confidence intervals capture the truth only 50-70% of the time.
- Confidence
- Well replicated
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.