Oddly Wired
← all facts
decision making

You prefer a smaller reward that is certain.

Research shows people systematically choose lower-value, certain rewards over higher-value options involving uncertainty.

The mere presence of uncertainty triggers a disproportionate avoidance response. This happens even when the expected value of the uncertain option is mathematically higher. We view the 'unknown' as a cost that must be deducted from the reward.

Your aversion to the unknown costs you more than you realize.

Where this comes from

Study
Gneezy, List, & Wu, 2006, Quarterly Journal of Economics
What the check found
Gneezy, List, and Wu (2006) did publish this study in the QJE. While the effect is well-documented in behavioral economics, the magnitude is frequently debated and subject to replication variability.
Confidence
Solid, with limits

Related

One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.