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decision making
You think your future self will share your current tastes.
The projection bias is your systematic failure to predict how your future preferences will change based on your current state.
You often underestimate how much your decisions are influenced by your current physical or emotional state, like ordering too much food when you are hungry, assuming your future self will have the same appetite.
You are a stranger to your own future needs.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Loewenstein, O'Donoghue, and Rabin (2003)
- What the check found
- The definition is accurate and the citation is correctly attributed to the 2003 paper which established the term in economics literature.
- Confidence
- Well replicated
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.