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time
You expect your future self to work perfectly.
A 1994 study found that people consistently underestimate how long tasks take, even when they know their own history of being late.
You focus on the ideal scenario and ignore the inevitable complications. You treat your upcoming schedule as if it exists in a vacuum where nothing goes wrong.
Your future plans ignore your own past behavior.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Buehler, Griffin, and Ross, 1994, Planning Fallacy
- What the check found
- The 1994 study is the seminal work on the planning fallacy. The claim correctly identifies the core mechanism (ignoring past history in favor of the current task's ideal scenario).
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.