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planning
You will always underestimate the time a task takes.
People consistently predict they will complete tasks faster than they actually do.
In a 1994 study, students were asked to estimate their thesis completion dates; their predictions were almost always optimistic, ignoring their past performance trends. You focus on the best-case scenario for your schedule.
Your calendar is a record of hopes, not your history.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Buehler, Griffin, and Ross, 1994
- What the check found
- The claim correctly identifies the 1994 study by Buehler, Griffin, and Ross regarding the planning fallacy. The reference material provided does not contain this information, but the claim is accurate.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.