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planning
Your best-case scenario is your default timeline for tasks.
People consistently underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future projects.
You focus on your personal vision of the future rather than historical data on how long similar tasks actually take. This creates a persistent gap between your projected and actual progress. Experience rarely corrects your future estimates.
You remain optimistic about your own efficiency.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Buehler, 1994
- What the check found
- The claim correctly identifies the 1994 study by Roger Buehler, Dale Griffin, and Michael Ross regarding the planning fallacy, despite the provided reference text describing a different Buehler.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.