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decision making
Random numbers influence your estimate of an unknown value.
A 1974 experiment demonstrated that participants' estimates for geopolitical statistics were significantly skewed by a random number drawn from a wheel of fortune.
The experiment asked participants to estimate the percentage of African countries in the United Nations, rather than a geographical fact.
The first number you hear in a discussion sets the boundaries for your logic.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Tversky and Kahneman, 1974, Science
- What the check found
- The original study accurately describes the anchoring effect using a wheel of fortune, but mislabels the specific estimation task performed by participants.
- Confidence
- Well replicated
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.