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anchoring
Your first impression of a number dictates your judgment.
The initial, often arbitrary value you are presented with exerts a pull on all subsequent estimates.
When faced with an unknown quantity, the brain uses the first number encountered as an 'anchor' and adjusts upward or downward. In a 1974 study, participants spun a wheel of fortune to get a number, then estimated the percentage of African nations in the UN; those who spun higher numbers provided significantly higher estimates.
The first number you hear holds the floor until you prove otherwise.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Tversky and Kahneman, 1974, Science
- What the check found
- While the claim is historically accurate and widely accepted in psychology, the provided reference material does not contain the specific quote from the 1974 study, limiting the confidence score.
- Confidence
- Contested
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.