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memory
You rewrite your own history to match current outcomes.
People consistently misremember their past predictions as being more accurate than they actually were.
After an event occurs, the brain updates the memory of your past thoughts to align with the new reality. This hindsight bias prevents you from learning from past forecasting errors, as you believe you knew the outcome all along.
Your memory of your own foresight is a fabrication.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Fischhoff, 1975
- What the check found
- Fischhoff (1975) is the foundational study for hindsight bias. The claim accurately reflects the core finding that outcome knowledge distorts memory of previous judgments.
- Confidence
- Well replicated
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.