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competence
You overestimate your ability on tasks you find difficult.
The hard-easy effect describes the tendency to overestimate one's own performance on hard tasks and underestimate it on easy ones.
When a task is difficult, individuals fail to account for how likely they are to miss critical information. Conversely, when a task is easy, people assume they are 'above average' and underestimate the likelihood that others will perform equally well.
Confidence is a poor predictor of difficulty.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Lichtenstein and Fischhoff, 1977
- What the check found
- The definition of the hard-easy effect is accurate, and Lichtenstein and Fischhoff (1977) are the correct authors for this foundational research in calibration of probability judgments.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.