judgment

You ignore the statistics to focus on the story.

People disregard general statistical information in favor of specific, anecdotal evidence.

When given a description of a person and asked for their profession, individuals ignore population ratios. Instead, they rely on how well the description fits a stereotype, causing systematic errors in judgment.

A single compelling detail carries more weight for you than a thousand dry facts.

Where this comes from

Study: Kahneman and Tversky (1973)
What the check found: Kahneman and Tversky (1973) is the seminal paper identifying the representativeness heuristic and base-rate neglect as a primary driver of this phenomenon.
Confidence: Well replicated

judgment reasoning logic

You judge objects differently based on what they are near.
Your mind is trapped by the first number you hear.
You accept illogical arguments if the conclusion feels true.

One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.

One a day on Instagram Watch on YouTube Short version on TikTok One a day on Bluesky

You ignore the statistics to focus on the story.

Where this comes from

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