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base rate
You ignore the numbers when a story is better.
A 1973 study showed that people ignore objective probability when presented with a specific, compelling description.
Your brain is wired for narratives, not statistics. A single vivid example overrides a hundred pages of data in your decision-making. You prioritize the plot over the base rate.
A good story is your enemy's best weapon.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Kahneman and Tversky, 1973, Base Rate Fallacy
- What the check found
- The 1973 Kahneman and Tversky paper correctly identifies the phenomenon of prioritizing representativeness over base rates, a concept foundational to the study of cognitive biases.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.