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memory
You falsely believe you predicted the outcome.
Hindsight bias causes you to view events as inevitable after they have occurred.
Once you know the result of a decision, your memory reconfigures to suggest you saw it coming all along. This prevents you from learning from errors because you convince yourself your logic was sound from the start.
We rewrite our past to maintain an illusion of foresight.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Fischhoff, 1975
- What the check found
- The claim accurately reflects the core finding of Fischhoff's 1975 research, specifically the 'knew-it-all-along' phenomenon and its relation to perceiving past outcomes as inevitable.
- Confidence
- Well replicated
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.