Oddly Wired
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focus illusion

You exaggerate the impact of any single factor.

Humans systematically overestimate the importance of whatever they are currently focusing on, like a new car or a job.

A 1998 study found that while people predicted residents in different climates would be significantly happier, their actual life satisfaction scores were identical.

Whatever you are thinking about right now seems more consequential than it is.

Where this comes from

Study
Schkade and Kahneman, 1998, Psychological Science
What the check found
The study exists and the finding is described accurately. The 'focusing illusion' is a well-established concept in behavioral economics, even if the 1998 study had a narrow scope.
Confidence
Well replicated
focus illusionjudgmentbias

Related

One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.