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judgment
Your certainty in your beliefs outweighs their actual accuracy.
Research by Fischhoff, Slovic, and Lichtenstein (1977) demonstrates that individuals consistently demonstrate overconfidence, often failing to reach 100% accuracy even when they express complete certainty.
The accuracy rate for claims of 100% certainty varies by task and is not a fixed universal value of 80%.
Being sure of yourself is not the same as being right.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Fischhoff, Slovic, and Lichtenstein, 1977
- What the check found
- Fischhoff, Slovic, and Lichtenstein (1977) did demonstrate that individuals are frequently overconfident when expressing extreme certainty, but 80% is an approximation of task performance rather than a rigid constant.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.