empathy gap

You cannot accurately predict your own emotional responses.

A 2005 study showed that people in a calm state consistently underestimate how much intense emotions will drive their behavior.

When you are calm, your brain fails to simulate the visceral impact of hunger, anger, or desire, leading to poor planning.

You are a stranger to yourself under pressure.

Where this comes from

Study: George Loewenstein, 2005
What the check found: The phenomenon is well-established and correctly attributed to Loewenstein, but it is not a '2005 finding' in its origin; 2005 is simply one of many years in which he published on the topic.
Confidence: Solid, with limits

One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.