memory

You believe your past predictions were more accurate than reality.

Hindsight bias makes you rewrite your own memory to align with outcomes you could not have known.

In a 1975 study, participants asked to predict historical events consistently claimed they 'knew it all along' once the actual outcome was revealed.

Your memory of your past self is a curated, reconstructed narrative.

Where this comes from

Study: Fischhoff, 1975
What the check found: Fischhoff (1975) is the seminal work on this phenomenon. The term 'rewriting' is a common psychological shorthand for the reconstructive process that creates hindsight bias.
Confidence: Well replicated

One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.