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planning
You are systematically wrong about your own schedule.
The planning fallacy is the tendency to underestimate the time needed to complete a future task.
A 1994 study found that students consistently predicted they would finish their thesis weeks earlier than they actually did. Even when they had experienced previous delays, they ignored their own history and assumed this time would be different.
Your past failures to meet deadlines do not inform your future predictions.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Buehler, Griffin, and Ross, 1994
- What the check found
- The 1994 study by Buehler, Griffin, and Ross is the seminal work on the planning fallacy and accurately describes the findings mentioned.
- Confidence
- Well replicated
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.