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You are surprised by the Law of Truly Large Numbers.
With a large enough sample, many outrageous events are likely to occur.
The Law of Truly Large Numbers states that given enough opportunities, rare events are likely to happen, but they are not mathematically guaranteed to occur.
The rare is inevitable when the scale is large.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Diaconis and Mosteller, 1989
- What the check found
- The original paper by Diaconis and Mosteller (1989) identifies that rare events become likely given enough opportunities, but they are not 'bound' (guaranteed) to occur, nor are 'almost any' events covered.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.