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base rate neglect
An anecdote outweighs data when you make a judgment.
You consistently prioritize specific, vivid information over broader, more accurate statistical trends.
Base rate neglect happens because the brain processes emotional stories more efficiently than abstract numbers. When provided with a brief, memorable description of a person, you ignore the wider probability of them belonging to a certain group, preferring to rely on the representativeness of the anecdote.
A good story makes you forget the law of large numbers.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Kahneman and Tversky, 1973, Psychological Review
- What the check found
- The scientific concept is accurate and the attribution is correct, though the provided reference material did not contain a matching quote to verify the specific phrasing.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.