Oddly Wired
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decision making

You predict future happiness based on your current physical state.

The empathy gap describes your inability to understand how your decisions change when you move between a 'hot' state of desire and a 'cold' state of neutrality.

When you are full, you cannot accurately imagine the irrational choices you will make when hungry. You consistently underestimate the power of your physical cravings to rewrite your decision-making priorities.

You are a different person when you are uncomfortable.

Where this comes from

Study
George Loewenstein, 2005
What the check found
The concept of the hot-cold empathy gap is well-established, and George Loewenstein is the primary researcher credited with its development, including the 2005 paper 'The hot-cold empathy gap in medical decision-making'.
Confidence
Solid, with limits

Related

One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.