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emotion
You overestimate your ability to manage your future moods.
Projection bias is the tendency to assume your future self will have the same tastes, desires, and emotional states as your current self.
You shop for food when hungry and buy too much, or make future plans while feeling happy that you cannot follow through on when feeling low. The brain struggles to simulate future states that differ from your current physical or emotional reality. You treat your present state as a permanent condition.
Your current mood is a poor advisor for your future needs.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Loewenstein, O'Donoghue, and Rabin, 2003
- What the check found
- The definition aligns with the behavioral economics literature and the cited 2003 paper accurately introduced the term. Although the provided text does not contain the definition, the claim is standard.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.