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decision making
You judge past decisions by their results, not their logic.
The outcome bias causes people to retrospectively evaluate a decision as poor if the result was unfavorable, even if the decision-making process was sound.
Researchers have found that when people evaluate scenarios with identical risks, they rate the decision-maker more harshly if the outcome was negative. This blinds you to the quality of the strategy employed at the time. You confuse bad luck with bad judgment.
A good process does not always guarantee a successful outcome.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Baron and Hershey, 1988, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
- What the check found
- The claim accurately defines the well-established 'outcome bias' as identified in the 1988 Baron and Hershey study. The provided reference material lacked the specific quote, but the fact is textbook.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.