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decision making
You judge decisions by the result, not the process.
A 1988 study found that observers rate a high-risk decision as more intelligent if it leads to success than if it results in failure.
Despite the logic behind a gamble remaining identical, the subsequent outcome fundamentally alters how the decision-making process is evaluated by others. We struggle to decouple the inherent wisdom of a choice from the fortune of its consequence. This makes us unfairly critical of failure, even when the underlying logic was sound at the time.
A bad decision can have a good result, yet you still categorize it as smart.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Baron and Hershey, 1988, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
- What the check found
- The claim accurately reflects the seminal 1988 study by Baron and Hershey, which defined and documented the 'outcome bias'—the tendency to judge decisions by their outcomes rather than their inherent quality.
- Confidence
- Well replicated
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.