Oddly Wired
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memory

You confuse your current opinion with your past beliefs.

The hindsight bias creates the illusion that you knew something would happen, even when you had no evidence for it.

Once an outcome is known, your brain automatically reorganizes your memory to incorporate that outcome, making the event seem inevitable. You struggle to reconstruct the uncertainty you felt before the result was clear. This makes the past look far more predictable than it ever was.

You rewrite your own history to appear prescient.

Where this comes from

Study
Fischhoff, 1975
What the check found
Baruch Fischhoff's 1975 paper, 'Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty,' is the seminal work establishing this effect.
Confidence
Well replicated
memorybiashistory

Related

One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.