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ambiguity
You choose a known risk over an unknown one.
The Ellsberg Paradox shows that people prefer gambles with known odds over gambles where the probability is unknown.
Participants were offered a choice between picking a ball from an urn with a known ratio of colors or one with an unknown ratio. Even when the expected value is identical, humans shy away from the missing information. We value certainty over probability.
You would rather fail with a clear process than risk success in the dark.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Ellsberg, 1961
- What the check found
- The claim accurately reflects the core finding of Daniel Ellsberg's 1961 paper regarding ambiguity aversion.
- Confidence
- Well replicated
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.