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decision making
You are far more certain than you are accurate.
Overprecision is the excessive certainty you feel regarding the accuracy of your own beliefs.
Studies show that even when people are explicitly told their knowledge is limited, they continue to provide confidence intervals that are far too narrow. You mistake your internal feeling of confidence for objective reality.
Your certainty is a feeling, not a measure of truth.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Moore & Healy, 2008
- What the check found
- Moore and Healy (2008) formally identify overprecision as the third distinct type of overconfidence, specifically referring to the excessive certainty individuals have in their own beliefs.
- Confidence
- Solid, with limits
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.