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cognitive bias
Confidence is often a poor proxy for actual competence.
The overconfidence effect is the tendency for people to overestimate the accuracy of their own knowledge and the success of their decisions.
In a 1977 study, participants who expressed 100% certainty in their answers were actually correct only 75% to 85% of the time. The human mind is designed to build a coherent narrative of the world, not an accurate one.
Your certainty is a reflection of your ego, not your accuracy.
Where this comes from
- Study
- Fischhoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1977
- What the check found
- The citation (Fischhoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1977) correctly identifies the seminal paper for this phenomenon, and the 75-85% range is consistent with the results documented in that study.
- Confidence
- Well replicated
Related
One of these every day, and every one names the study it came from. When a finding is contested, it says so.